Rotation Projections
With Spring Training underway the Mets have already experienced the injury bug in their pitching rotation with injuries to both Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Both should return at some point this season but it does prove as a reminder that pitching is all about depth during the regular season. I looked at the last couple seasons for the Mets top 10 starting pitching options this year and projected out a basic WAR calculation to help with our 2026 projected win total.
| 2023 | 2024 | 162 | 11.9 | |||
| Pitcher | Starts | bWAR | Starts | bWAR | Proj Starts | Proj WAR (Mullar Index) |
| Senga | 29 | 4.5 | 1 | 0.1 | 25 | 3.5 |
| Peterson | 21 | 0.5 | 21 | 2.9 | 30 | 3.0 |
| Holmes | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 25 | 2.0 |
| Canning | 22 | 2.0 | 31 | 0.3 | 15 | 0.5 |
| Blackburn | 20 | 1.3 | 14 | 0.4 | 10 | 0.5 |
| Manaea | 10 | 0.3 | 30 | 3.0 | 20 | 1.8 |
| Montas | 0 | 0.1 | 30 | 0.6 | 12 | 0.3 |
| Megill | 25 | 0.7 | 15 | 0.5 | 10 | 0.3 |
| Others | 15 | 0 | ||||
Kodai Senga
Starting with Kodai Senga, it all comes down to health with Kodai. He had a marvelous rookie season, finishing with a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts but of course he essentially missed all of last season with multiple injuries. I think he will continue to be a top end rotation option when healthy but I’m only projecting him for 25 starts to be a little conservative.
David Peterson
Peterson is an interesting case. He was a former first round pick who had been up and down early in his career but has mostly been disappointing prior to last season when he put up a 2.91 ERA in 21 starts. Peterson finally got fully healthy after getting hip surgery last offseason and that could have been a key factor in his strong season. I think it’s asking a lot for him to repeat his 2024 season, but I think he will prove to be reliable. Thinking mid 3s ERA.
Clay Holmes
It’s difficult to predict what Holmes will provide in his first season as an MLB starting pitcher. I think it’s safe to say he likely won’t make 30 starts, so I’m projecting him for 25 starts and solid middle of the rotation stats, producing a 2.0 WAR. He’s produced 2.5 WAR over 126 innings as a reliever the last 2 seasons, so I will be conservative and say he is slightly less effective in his new role in a similar number of innings.
Griffin Canning
Canning is an interesting case because he has had MLB success before, producing 3 seasons with an ERA+ over 100 (league average), but he’s coming off a very poor season where he had a 5.19 ERA in 31 starts. I think he is a candidate for a bounceback season but my optimism is tempered after his season from last year. I think he’ll make about 15 starts before he’s replaced by the younger arms or by a returning Montas/Manaea and I’ll put him at 0.5 WAR, as I think he’ll keep the Mets in games but will be far from dominant.
Paul Blackburn
Blackburn is similar to Canning in my view. I think he will be an average back end of the rotation starter until he is eventually replaced by either the emergence of Tidwell and Sproat from AAA or the return of Manaea/Montas.
Sean Manaea
Manea is coming off a resurgent season and it’s been well documented how he reinvented himself before the 2024 season. I think when healthy he will produce something similar to last year. I’m giving him 20 starts and a proportionally very similar WAR to last season with just a slight drop off. The Mets are optimistic he won’t miss much time but even if he comes back in early June he should be able to hit 20 starts.
Frankie Montas
The Montas signing was a bit perplexing to me even before the injury, as he was injured all of 2023 and was mostly ineffective in 2024. There is some upside with his stuff and he has had some good seasons many moons ago but I am not counting on much from him. His injury is more significant than Manaea’s and I think he’ll give similar production to last season in fewer starts.
Tylor Megill
Megill gets a lot of flack but I think he is actually pretty solid for what he is, which is a depth starter. He’s made 67 career starts with an 89 ERA+ and last year he made 15 starts with a 98 ERA+. Pretty solid numbers from a 7th or 8th starter and I would expect more of the same from him this season.
Others
This part is very difficult to project but I’m guessing the Mets will have around 15 starts from people outside of the 8 names already listed. This could include someone like Jose Urena if things go wrong with injuries early on this season, or more optimistically, it could include Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell if they perform well in AAA.
I’m projecting the total to be a wash with a 0.0 WAR, as I think guys like Urena will make a few starts with a negative WAR (think Houser last year), while maybe Sproat will come up and even it out with a few good starts on the flip side.
Sproat certainly has the upside to produce even more than that and perhaps even be a breakout player. However, he has yet to even have any success at the AAA level, so until then it is difficult for me to project anything significant in MLB from him just yet.
Comparison to 2024
This exercise has actually made me more bullish on the Mets rotation compared to last year. Last year Severino, Manaea, Quintana, Peterson, Megill, Houser, Blackburn and Scott combined for a 9.6 bWAR, which is over 2 wins below what I am projecting for our starters this season. Butto also made 7 starts (not sure how to see his WAR split for just starts on bREF) but even so this indicates the rotation should be an improvement from last season, as long as they avoid any additional long-term injuries to their starters.